Elon Musk Predicts Tesla’s FSD Will Surpass Human Driving Safety By Q2 2025
Tesla CEO Elon Musk said on Thursday that the company sees its full self-driving (FSD) driver assistance technology superseding human driving capabilities in 3 months.
Musk said in an X live on Thursday that the company sees FSD driving better than an average human driver in terms of the incidence of accidents by the second quarter of this year and getting 10 times safer in due time and further until it will no longer crash.
Tesla’s FSD currently requires active driver supervision. However, Musk is optimistic that the technology will enable autonomous driving with future versions of the software.
Musk is known for overestimating his company’s products and providing deadlines he cannot meet. As far back as 2019, Musk said that he was confident about Tesla having operational robotaxis by 2020.
Last year, Musk said that the company would start deploying self-driving Model 3 and Model Y vehicles in Texas and California for ride-hail in 2025, provided it gets the necessary regulatory clearances.
Earlier this week, the U.S. auto safety regulator National Highway Traffic Safety Administration (NHTSA) opened a probe into about 2.6 million Tesla vehicles equipped with the company’s full self-driving driver assistance technology following a complaint alleging that the use of its “Actually Smart Summon” feature led to a crash.
Actually Smart Summon refers to a feature that allows a user to remotely move the vehicle towards themselves or to another nearby location such as a parking lot through the company’s phone app.
In October, NHTSA opened another investigation into 2.4 million Tesla vehicles following reports of four crashes where its full self-driving (FSD) partial driving automation system was engaged.
The regulator then said that it had identified four crash reports in which a Tesla experienced a crash after entering an area of “reduced roadway visibility” with FSD engaged. The reduced visibility, the regulator said, was caused by sun glare, fog, or airborne dust.
In one of the crashes, the vehicle struck and killed a pedestrian, the regulator added.
Elon Musk’s prediction that Tesla’s Full Self-Driving (FSD) technology will surpass human driving safety by Q2 2025 is ambitious but aligns with Tesla’s track record of pushing boundaries in autonomous driving technology. However, it’s critical to view such claims in context, given past delays and the regulatory scrutiny the company continues to face. Here’s a breakdown:
Optimistic Vision
- Surpassing Human Drivers: Musk’s assertion that FSD will exceed the safety of human drivers by mid-2025 hinges on Tesla’s ability to refine its AI algorithms, improve real-world data processing, and eliminate edge cases that lead to accidents. This aligns with Tesla’s strategy of leveraging billions of miles of driving data from its fleet.
- 10x Safety Goal: The aim to achieve a tenfold improvement in safety over time showcases Tesla’s ambition to make FSD not only better than human drivers but nearly crash-proof. Such advancements could drastically reduce the global incidence of road accidents, which are predominantly caused by human error.
Challenges to Realization
- Regulatory Hurdles: Tesla’s FSD technology remains under active supervision by regulators like the National Highway Traffic Safety Administration (NHTSA). Investigations into crash incidents involving FSD highlight the need for robust safety validation before widespread deployment.
- Technical Limitations: Features like “Actually Smart Summon,” which enable remote vehicle movement, demonstrate Tesla’s cutting-edge capabilities. However, incidents involving reduced visibility (e.g., sun glare or fog) and resulting accidents reveal that the system is not yet foolproof.
- Public Trust and Liability: Convincing the public and regulators to trust FSD over human drivers is an uphill battle. Questions around liability in crashes involving autonomous systems further complicate deployment.
Musk’s Predictive Track Record
While Musk’s predictions are often bold, they’ve historically been delayed:
- In 2019, he promised operational robotaxis by 2020, a goal that remains unmet.
- His optimism about ride-hail deployments in 2025 depends heavily on securing regulatory approval, which remains uncertain.
The Bigger Picture
Despite these challenges, Tesla continues to lead the charge in autonomous driving, and even incremental improvements in FSD could have significant societal impacts:
- Fewer Accidents: If FSD reduces crash rates, even marginally, it could save thousands of lives annually.
- Economic Benefits: Reduced accident-related costs and insurance claims could reshape the automotive industry.
- Global Adoption: Tesla’s advancements could set a precedent for other automakers, accelerating the global transition to autonomous vehicles.
Conclusion
While Musk’s timeline may be overly optimistic, Tesla’s continued focus on improving FSD technology could eventually redefine driving safety standards. Achieving safety levels 10 times better than human drivers would represent a revolutionary milestone—but it will likely require more time, regulatory cooperation, and public trust than Musk anticipates.
